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华尔街聚焦自动驾驶,2030年北美Robotaxi市场或达70亿美元
Huan Qiu Wang·2025-06-10 03:15

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that North America's autonomous driving vehicles have officially entered the commercialization phase, with expectations of capturing a $7 billion share in the U.S. ride-sharing market by 2030, shifting investor focus from "technical feasibility" to "growth speed and market size" [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. ride-sharing market will surge from $58 billion to over $336 billion by 2030, with Robotaxi expected to account for approximately $7 billion, representing about 8% of total bookings [3] - The North American Robotaxi market is projected to be around $300 million in 2025, making up less than 1% of the ride-hailing market, but with a remarkable compound annual growth rate of nearly 90% from 2025 to 2030 [3] - Waymo leads the competition with over 1,500 vehicles in its fleet, completing over 250,000 paid rides weekly, and plans to expand to seven U.S. cities by the end of 2026 [3] - Tesla is set to launch its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, aiming to compete directly with Waymo, with differentiation in scale and technology being key to long-term profitability [3] Group 3 - The commercialization of autonomous driving is reshaping the industry landscape, with traditional ride-hailing platforms like Uber and Lyft potentially shifting to a light-asset model by integrating third-party autonomous vehicle fleets [3] - Uber has partnered with 18 autonomous technology companies, while Lyft has also collaborated with multiple firms [3] Group 4 - Cost reduction is a critical factor driving the large-scale expansion of autonomous vehicles, with expectations of over 1,800 commercial autonomous vehicles in the U.S. by the end of 2025, increasing to 35,000 by 2030 [3] - The cost per mile for autonomous vehicles is expected to continue declining, establishing an economic foundation for massive scale expansion [3] Group 5 - Goldman Sachs also highlights the potential of the Level 8 heavy truck market, predicting that by 2030, there will be 25,000 autonomous trucks on the road, capturing an $18 billion share of the freight market, which would account for about 3% of total truck mileage [4]