市场情绪再测试！“报复性税收”引争议之际，本周又迎三场美债拍卖

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions are increasingly scrutinized as indicators of domestic and international investor demand for U.S. debt and dollar assets, especially in light of recent fiscal policies and trade tensions [2][4]. Group 1: Auction Details - The U.S. Treasury will auction $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $39 billion in ten-year notes on Wednesday, and $22 billion in thirty-year notes on Thursday [4]. - Recent trends show that the yield on long-term U.S. bonds has hovered around 5%, with the 30-year bond yield reaching 4.97%, close to its highest level since 2023 [4][6]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Concerns - Concerns are rising among investors regarding the U.S. fiscal deficit, which has reached 120% of GDP, and the potential impact of President Trump's policies on inflation and global growth [4][5]. - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that if investors lose confidence in the dollar and U.S. debt, it could pose significant issues for all market participants needing financing [5]. Group 3: Short vs. Long-Term Debt Demand - Demand for short-term U.S. debt remains robust, with indirect bids from foreign central banks accounting for 62% of the total issuance in recent auctions [6]. - In contrast, the 10-year and 30-year bond auctions are expected to face challenges, with the latter anticipated to be particularly weak due to global demand issues for long-term bonds [7][8]. Group 4: Political Influences on Demand - The political landscape, particularly Trump's proposed "Big and Beautiful" plan, is influencing investor sentiment, with potential for increased taxes on foreign entities perceived as having unfair tax policies [9]. - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in yields may attract buyers to the 30-year bonds, despite their current unpopularity [8].