锰矿库存开启趋势性累增 预计锰硅仍低位震荡运行

Market Overview - As of June 6, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port reached 3.297 million tons, an increase of 168,000 tons week-on-week; Lianyungang Port's inventory was 5,000 tons; and Qinzhou Port's inventory was 900,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons. The total manganese ore inventory across ports was 4.202 million tons, up by 132,000 tons from the previous period [1] - As of June 9, the mainstream market price for 6517 silicon manganese was between 5,300-5,400 RMB/ton, down 4.26% week-on-week and down 31.8% year-on-year, indicating a downward trend in prices [1] Futures Market - On June 9, the number of manganese silicon futures warehouse receipts on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 102,565, an increase of 1,153 from the previous trading day [2] Institutional Insights - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that prices are primarily following coking coal trends. Although inventory levels have decreased due to previous production cuts, weekly production has started to rebound, leading to limited improvement in fundamentals. Manganese ore inventory has significantly increased, and prices are expected to trend downward. Iron production has slightly decreased, while silicon manganese supply has seen a slight uptick. The market's expectations have shifted, and prices remain weak. A short-term strategy of light positions is suggested to observe if any rebound is sustainable [3] - Everbright Futures highlighted that while silicon manganese production is at a relatively low level compared to previous years, it has seen a slight increase over the past three weeks. However, the limited supply reduction offers little support for prices. Weak terminal demand continues to be a major factor affecting silicon manganese prices, with limited purchasing willingness from downstream due to low prices. The cost side remains stable, with a slight increase in South African semi-carbonate prices by 0.2 RMB/ton. Overall, the fundamentals driving silicon manganese are limited, and short-term low-level fluctuations are expected, with attention on mainstream steel procurement progress and market sentiment changes [4]