Industry Overview - The weight loss drug market is projected to grow from an estimated $15 billion last year to as much as $150 billion by 2035, indicating a tenfold increase over the next decade [1][2] - Current medications primarily consist of GLP-1 agonists, which suppress appetite by slowing digestion [2] Market Leaders - Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominate the weight loss drug market, holding an estimated 97% market share, with Novo Nordisk at 62% and Eli Lilly at 35% of the GLP-1 market [2][4] - Both companies are actively developing next-generation products to maintain their market positions [8] Drug Development Challenges - Drug development is a rigorous process, and many candidates may fail to reach the market, as evidenced by Pfizer's abandonment of its oral weight loss drug due to safety concerns [5] - Newly approved drugs must compete not only on price but also on efficacy, side effects, and prescriber comfort [6] Upcoming Products - Novo Nordisk is seeking approval for an oral version of Wegovy, with hopes for a decision by the end of the year, and is also advancing CagriSema through phase 3 trials [9] - Eli Lilly's orforglipron has shown promising results in phase 3 studies and could be the first small-molecule weight loss drug on the market, while its injectable therapy retatrutide is also in phase 3 trials [10] Competitive Landscape - Boehringer Ingelheim's survodutide is noted as a potential near-term competitor, with an expected arrival in 2027 [11] - Other competitors, such as Amgen's MariTide, are still in earlier stages of development, with phase 3 studies beginning in March and a potential market entry in 2028 [11] Investment Considerations - Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are well-positioned to capture significant growth in the weight loss market, with Eli Lilly currently favored by Wall Street, reflected in its higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 62 compared to Novo Nordisk's 22 [12] - The expected long-term earnings growth rates are 14% for Novo Nordisk and 32% for Eli Lilly, with PEG ratios of 1.5 and 1.9 respectively, indicating reasonable pricing for their growth prospects [13]
2 Weight Loss Drug Stocks That Are Screaming Buys in June