野村东方国际：中国权益资产将在下半年跑赢海外市场

Core Insights - Nomura Oriental International Securities anticipates that the market has fully priced in most potential changes, including consistent expectations for the US economy (strong reality, weak expectations) and the Chinese economy (weak reality, strong expectations) [1] - The firm warns of increased volatility risk in the market as expectations align but do not fully match the fundamentals, particularly as the market approaches a critical directional choice in the second half of 2025 [1] - The report highlights that the Chinese equity market is expected to outperform overseas markets due to strong domestic policy expectations and better liquidity conditions in emerging Asia amid a weak dollar [1] Market Expectations - The market is entering a long-tail phase where the alignment of expectations and reality may lead to heightened volatility in the second half of 2025 [1] - The divergence between expectations and reality is expected to narrow as high-frequency data is validated month by month [1] - International capital flows are anticipated to shift, causing additional impacts on liquidity in the market [1] Policy and Growth Sectors - Strong policy support for growth sectors is emphasized, which may redirect market attention towards emerging high-growth areas [1] - The report suggests that the supportive policy environment will play a crucial role in guiding investment towards sectors with high growth potential [1]