投资者谨慎观望 信贷市场波动率逼近历史低点

Group 1 - The credit market is experiencing low volatility, with North American corporate credit default swap (CDS) price fluctuations dropping nearly three-quarters, approaching historical lows [1][3] - Fund managers are adopting a cautious approach, avoiding increased risk exposure until U.S. tariff policies become clearer, leading to a stabilization in risk premiums [3][4] - Despite the low volatility, major banks' bond traders are preparing for potential market turbulence, indicating that future macroeconomic news could impact corporate fundamentals and investor risk appetite [4] Group 2 - The global corporate bond spread has returned to levels seen before the "liberation day" comments by Trump in April, reflecting a relatively tight market environment [3] - There are no fundamental reasons for a large-scale credit sell-off, and no specific industry is in clear distress, suggesting a different environment compared to previous cycles [3] - Investors are bracing for potential increases in volatility due to upcoming events such as the G7 meeting and the July 9 tariff deadline set by the Trump administration [4]