BRO Lags Industry, Trades at Premium: What Should Investors Do Now?

Core Insights - Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) shares have increased by 20.4% over the past year, underperforming the industry and Finance sector growth rates of 23.4% and 20.7%, respectively, but outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite return of 11.6% [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $30.91 billion, with an average trading volume of 1.8 million shares over the last three months [1] Valuation - BRO shares are trading at a premium with a price-to-forward 12-month earnings ratio of 24.9X, compared to the industry average of 22.71X [4] - Other insurers like Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) and Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) are also trading at multiples higher than the industry average, while Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) is trading at a discount [4] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BRO's 2025 earnings per share indicates an 8.5% year-over-year increase, with revenues projected at $5.20 billion, reflecting an 8.2% improvement [5] - For 2026, the consensus estimates suggest an increase of 8.8% in earnings per share and 8.1% in revenues compared to 2025 [5] - Earnings have grown by 21.5% over the past five years, surpassing the industry average of 15.2% [6] Strategic Initiatives - BRO has completed 687 acquisitions since 1993, leveraging strategic buyouts to capture market opportunities and enhance its product and service portfolio [8][13] - The company has a strong liquidity position supported by its diverse business model and operational expertise [14] - BRO has raised dividends for 30 consecutive years, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% [8][15] Analyst Sentiment - Recent bearish sentiment from analysts has led to lowered estimates for 2025 and 2026, with the consensus estimate for 2025 earnings down by 0.4% and for 2026 down by 1.3% over the past 60 days [9] - The average price target from 13 analysts is $119.77 per share, indicating a potential upside of 8.3% from the last closing price [10] Revenue Drivers - Commissions and fees, the main revenue component, benefit from increasing new business, strong retention, and continued rate increases across most coverage lines [12] - The company has met its intermediate annual revenue goal of $4 billion, doubling its revenue in the last five years [12] Conclusion - Factors such as new business, strong retention, rate increases, strategic buyouts, and a solid dividend history position the company well for future growth [16] - The robust capital position reflects financial flexibility, supporting ongoing investments and shareholder returns [16]