Popular Hits 52-Week High: Should You Buy BPOP Stock Now?

Core Insights - Popular, Inc. (BPOP) shares reached a 52-week high of $107.15, with a 10.6% increase over the past six months, outperforming its industry and peers [1][6] Financial Performance - The company achieved a four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6% in revenues, 6.8% in net loans, and 3.4% in total deposits from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong organic growth [4] - Net interest income (NII) grew at a CAGR of 5.3% during the same period, supported by increased loan balances and improved asset yields [7] - The net interest margin (NIM) expanded from 2.88% in 2021 to 3.40% in Q1 2025, with expectations for further improvement due to loan repricing and declining deposit costs [7] Sales and Earnings Estimates - Zacks Consensus Estimates project sales of $3.13 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.54% [5] - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward by 1.2% and 4.6%, respectively, indicating expected growth of 17.1% for 2025 and 20% for 2026 [14] Strategic Initiatives - The company has invested $300 million in technology infrastructure and made strategic acquisitions to enhance efficiency and client experience since launching its transformation program in 2022 [8] - A $500 million share repurchase program was initiated in August 2024, with $160 million remaining as of March 31, 2025 [10] Liquidity and Capital Management - Popular maintains a robust liquidity position of $6.6 billion and total debt of $1.4 billion, indicating low refinancing risk [9] - The company raised its quarterly dividend by 12.9% to $0.70 per share in late 2024, with an annualized dividend growth of 12.86% over the past five years [9] Profitability Metrics - BPOP's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) is 12.22%, significantly higher than the industry average of 9.74% and its peers, F.N.B. (7.97%) and Pinnacle Financial Partners (9.29%) [10][11] Challenges - Operating costs have increased at a CAGR of 6.7% from 2020 to 2024, primarily due to technology investments and personnel expenses [12] - The credit profile faces challenges, with nearly 50% of the loan portfolio in commercial loans, which are more vulnerable in a weakening economic environment [13] Valuation - BPOP trades at a P/E (F1) multiple of 10.04X, which is lower than the industry average of 11.1X, indicating a potentially attractive investment opportunity [16][20]