日美关税谈判前景“疑云密布”

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States have not reached a consensus, despite Japan's efforts to enhance its negotiating position. The prospects for an agreement during the upcoming G7 summit appear uncertain [1][2]. Group 1: Negotiation Status - Japan's trade representative has visited the U.S. for three consecutive weeks, yet no substantial progress has been made in the fifth round of ministerial talks [1]. - Japan's government has been adjusting its negotiation strategy, aiming for the complete removal of tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, but the U.S. seems unwilling to accept these demands [3]. - The Japanese government had hoped to finalize an agreement during the G7 summit in mid-June, but significant differences remain between the two parties [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff measures have severely impacted Japan's automobile and steel industries, contributing to economic pressures as domestic rice prices remain unstable [2]. - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, with expectations of further economic decline in the second quarter due to the tariff policies [5]. - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections may hinge on the government's ability to achieve favorable results in the U.S. tariff negotiations, influencing the political landscape [2][5]. Group 3: Strategic Proposals - Japan is proposing to enhance economic security cooperation with the U.S. in sectors such as liquefied natural gas, semiconductors, and shipbuilding, aiming to alleviate U.S. pressures in these areas [3]. - Specific proposals include participation in U.S. LNG development projects and significant purchases of U.S. semiconductor products, along with a joint shipbuilding initiative [3]. Group 4: Broader Context - There are concerns within Japan's economic circles that the country is no longer a priority for the U.S., especially in light of the recent U.S.-China trade dynamics [4]. - The Japanese government’s strategy of leveraging economic security has not garnered the expected attention from the U.S., leaving negotiations in a stalemate [5].