美银证券报告：制造业“回流美国”雷声大，与实际产能落地之间仍存很大差距

Core Insights - The U.S. government's "manufacturing reshoring" policy is primarily driven by tariffs to encourage companies to relocate production back to the U.S. [1] - A report from Bank of America indicates that multinational companies are now prioritizing the avoidance of geopolitical risks over minimizing costs when restructuring global supply chains [1][2] - Despite legislative efforts to promote manufacturing return, only 20% of analysts predict a "large-scale reshoring" of U.S. manufacturing, with 40% advocating for a faster return of capital-intensive industries [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Trends - Companies are increasingly inclined to shift production to friendly countries or nearby markets, with Vietnam, India, Thailand, and Mexico being the main beneficiaries due to their geographical and political advantages [1][2] - Nearly half of the analysts believe that high tariff policies will not significantly impact corporate decision-making, as companies prioritize supply chain flexibility and risk diversification [2] - The 2025 reshoring index has dropped by 311 basis points compared to the previous year, indicating a decline in the manufacturing reshoring trend [2] Group 2: Employment and Economic Impact - The U.S. manufacturing employment index has been declining, currently accounting for only 8% of total employment, which reflects the challenges of high labor costs and a shortage of qualified workers [1] - Despite significant capital investment in the U.S., the manufacturing output growth over the past year was only 1%, highlighting a gap between announced reshoring plans and actual production capacity [2]