中金：供需趋紧推动钨价进入牛市通道 全球钨业龙头配置价值愈加凸显

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC highlights that the price of 65% WO3 tungsten concentrate in China has surpassed 173,000 yuan/ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 31,000 yuan and a cumulative rise of 21.8%, reaching a historical high. The firm anticipates a continued tightening of supply and demand dynamics due to limited production growth and increasing demand driven by emerging industries and safety concerns [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The growth rate of tungsten production in China is slowing, with only Kazakhstan and South Korea expected to contribute significant supply increases in the short term. The global tungsten supply is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.57% from 2023 to 2028 [2]. - Domestic demand is benefiting from emerging industries such as photovoltaic tungsten wire and robotics, while overseas demand is influenced by geopolitical conflicts, leading to increased demand for high-end equipment and strategic stockpiling. The global tungsten consumption is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.61% during the same period [2]. Price Disparity and Export Opportunities - There is a noticeable divergence in domestic and international price systems, creating an arbitrage opportunity for tungsten product exports. Since the export controls were implemented in February, overseas APT prices have surged, while domestic tungsten concentrate prices remain strong. As of June 6, overseas APT prices exceeded domestic prices by 50,000 yuan/ton, with a premium rate of 22% [2]. - Despite a 20.1% year-on-year decline in overall tungsten product exports from January to April, exports of downstream tools and tungsten iron have shown robust growth in March and April [2]. Long-term Outlook and Industry Opportunities - The tightening supply-demand situation is expected to persist, with tungsten prices entering a bull market and likely to continue breaking historical highs. The supply-demand gap for tungsten is projected to expand from 18,300 tons in 2024 to 19,100 tons in 2028, with the gap representing -18.4% to -17.4% of global tungsten demand from 2024 to 2028 [3]. - The configuration opportunities for global tungsten industry leaders are becoming increasingly prominent, benefiting from resource injection, development, and simultaneous advancement in upstream resources and downstream high-end projects [3].