英国财税政策负面冲击显现，劳动力市场加速走冷

Group 1 - The UK labor market has shown signs of accelerated weakness since April, with the unemployment rate rising to its highest level in nearly four years at 4.6% for the period of February to April 2025, which is higher than both the previous year and the prior quarter [1][2] - Employee income growth is slowing down, with wages excluding bonuses increasing by 5.2% and including bonuses by 5.3% for the same period, which is below market expectations [1][2] - The number of job vacancies in the UK labor market has been declining, with 736,000 vacancies reported for March to May, a decrease of 63,000 from the previous quarter, marking the 35th consecutive quarter of decline [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in the labor market is attributed to rising employer costs, including an increase in national insurance tax by approximately £25 billion and a minimum wage increase of about 6.7%, which have led to reduced hiring intentions among businesses [3] - The retail sector has been particularly affected, with a reported decrease of 93,000 employees year-on-year, indicating a significant impact on employment levels [2][3] - The rising costs of hiring, with full-time recruitment costs in retail up by 10% and part-time costs up by 13%, are contributing to the overall strain on the labor market [3] Group 3 - The acceleration of labor market weakness has prompted expectations that the Bank of England may lower interest rates sooner than previously anticipated, leading to a depreciation of the British pound against the US dollar [4] - Industry leaders are calling for government intervention to support businesses through effective industrial strategies and to expedite the training of skilled workers as a crucial measure to improve the labor market situation [4]