WESTERN ANIMAL(SZ:300106) Zheng Quan Zhi Xing·2025-06-11 02:06Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the milk raw material prices continue to decline, and the oversupply situation remains unresolved, leading to pressure on the performance of listed dairy companies, including Western Pastoral (300106), which reported a revenue drop of 16.46% to 938 million yuan and a net loss of 119 million yuan, marking the second consecutive year of losses for the company [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Western Pastoral's dairy product sales increased significantly by 13.72% year-on-year, despite weak consumer demand [1][3] - The company's dairy product gross margin fell by 5.89 percentage points to 7.22%, which is lower than the 20.05% gross margin of its competitor Tianrun Dairy [1] - In Q1 2024, the company continued to struggle, with revenue of 187 million yuan, down 20.87% year-on-year, and a net loss of 9.81 million yuan, a significant decline of 129.95% [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Since September 2021, dairy product demand has weakened, and raw milk prices have been declining for over three years, leading to severe losses for farms and increased competition among companies [2] - Western Pastoral's brand premium and market share are weaker than leading companies, prompting the use of promotional strategies to maintain market share, which resulted in a decline in both sales revenue and gross margin [2] Group 3: Financial Data - In 2024, Western Pastoral's dairy product revenue decreased by 2.5% to 809 million yuan, despite a recovery in sales volume [5] - The company's subsidiary, Tianshan Yunmu Dairy, reported revenue of 196 million yuan with a net loss of 13.57 million yuan [6] - The feed business contributed only 77.43 million yuan in revenue, with a drastic decline of 71.79% year-on-year [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Western Pastoral's production target for 2025 is set at 147,300 tons, requiring a year-on-year growth of approximately 39.1% from the 105,900 tons produced in 2024 [9] - The company has shifted focus to the higher-margin infant formula market, partnering with Beiyinmei to establish Xinjiang Tianshan Xiaobei Company for infant formula sales [9] - However, the company faces challenges due to past regulatory issues regarding expired food additives in its infant formula, which may affect brand trust and require significant investment in marketing and R&D [10]