“星链”卫星大批坠落焚毁，碎片会砸着人么？

Core Viewpoint - Increasing solar storm activity is significantly impacting Earth satellites, particularly SpaceX's Starlink satellites, leading to a notable rise in satellite re-entries and crashes [1][2]. Group 1: Satellite Re-Entry and Crash Statistics - A study led by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center found that 583 Starlink satellites have crashed over the past five years, representing nearly half of the total 1190 low Earth orbit satellites that have re-entered during this period [2]. - The number of Starlink satellites crashing has escalated from 2 in 2020 to 316 expected in 2024, indicating a dramatic increase in satellite failures as solar activity intensifies [2][4]. Group 2: Impact of Solar Activity - The current solar cycle, particularly the 25th cycle, is characterized by stronger solar activity, which has been linked to increased rates of satellite re-entry. The study concluded that stronger geomagnetic activity correlates with faster satellite re-entries [3][4]. - NASA's measurements indicate that solar activity has been on the rise since December 2019, with expectations of reaching a peak in July 2024, which could further exacerbate satellite operational challenges [4]. Group 3: Starlink Satellite Operations and Lifespan - Starlink satellites are designed to provide global broadband service, including in remote areas, and are frequently launched using SpaceX's Falcon rockets, which can deploy multiple satellites at once [3]. - The average lifespan of satellites in low orbits is approximately five years, and many early-launched Starlink satellites are reaching the end of their operational life, contributing to the increased crash statistics [5]. Group 4: Industry Implications and Risks - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has raised concerns about the potential risks associated with SpaceX's satellite system, predicting that by 2035, the Starlink program could generate significant debris, posing risks to both aviation and ground safety [6]. - The increase in satellite crashes not only contributes to space debris but also raises operational costs for maintenance and replacement, impacting service reliability in a competitive market with numerous similar low Earth orbit satellite projects emerging [6][7].