量价齐升，港股科技ETF领涨市场

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the technology sector, is expected to perform well in the second half of the year, driven by positive factors from US-China negotiations and significant inflows of southbound capital [3][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong technology stocks have seen a rise, with the technology ETF (513020) increasing by over 1.4% and a trading volume exceeding 160 million HKD [1]. - Since June, southbound capital has consistently increased its investment in the Hong Kong market, with a net buying total exceeding 660 billion HKD as of June 10 [3]. Group 2: Economic and Industry Trends - Historical bull markets have clear leading sectors, with the current market potentially being led by the AI-driven technology industry [3]. - The macroeconomic environment in China is showing signs of improvement after a period of deflation, coinciding with a new upward cycle in technology driven by AI [3]. Group 3: Company Fundamentals - The Hong Kong technology sector is expected to benefit significantly from the current AI narrative, with strong growth in capital expenditures and cloud business revenues among leading internet companies [5]. - The valuation of Hong Kong technology stocks remains relatively low, positioned at the 26.44% percentile of the past decade, indicating potential for further appreciation [5]. Group 4: Profitability and Investment Outlook - The profitability of the Hong Kong technology sector is projected to grow strongly by 2025, supported by favorable conditions from the AI industry [8]. - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index is in a balanced range, with expectations for improved return on equity (ROE) in the technology sector, which may lead to higher valuations [8]. Group 5: Capital Flow Dynamics - There is a narrowing of foreign capital outflows, with domestic institutional investors becoming more active in the market [8]. - Despite previous outflows, southbound capital has accelerated its inflow into Hong Kong stocks, with institutional investors expected to drive significant future inflows [8]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, particularly for the technology sector, despite potential uncertainties from US-China trade negotiations [11]. - The ongoing recovery of domestic policies and continuous improvement in capital flow are expected to support upward movement in the Hong Kong market in the second half of the year [11].