美国5月CPI前瞻：关税冲击初步显现，美国经济“类滞胀”风险加剧？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the anticipated rebound of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May, following a low in April, with expectations of a 0.1 percentage point increase to 2.4% year-on-year [1][2] - Analysts predict that the core CPI will maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 2.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1][2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is a significant focus, with expectations that the effects will become more pronounced in the latter half of 2025, potentially keeping inflation levels around 3% [2][8] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the short-term impact of tariffs on the May CPI data will be limited, with a slight increase in core CPI by 5 basis points, while overall CPI is expected to rise by 0.17% month-on-month [8] - The forecast for used car prices is a decrease of 0.5%, while new car prices are expected to rise by 0.1% [8] - Wells Fargo analysts expect core goods prices to continue rising, with a year-on-year increase of 0.25% in May, while service inflation is projected to slow down [8] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy is influenced by the ongoing tariff policies, with internal debates on the long-term effects of tariffs on inflation [10][11] - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warns that the inflation risks from tariffs may take time to fully materialize, suggesting a potential for sustained inflation [12] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts are stable, with a 30% probability of recession and a 52.2% chance of a rate cut in September [14][17] Group 4 - The upcoming CPI data is expected to reveal the initial effects of tariff policies on prices, which may alter the current inflation narrative in the market [18] - If inflation exceeds expectations, it could lead to significant volatility in the US stock and bond markets, with predictions of a 2-3% drop in the S&P 500 if core inflation rises above 0.4% [18] - Long-term risks of "stagflation" are increasing, with high CPI levels coinciding with slowing economic growth, potentially affecting the future trajectory of the US dollar [19]