世行下调今年全球经济增长预期，大幅下调美国增长预期至1.4%

Group 1 - The World Bank does not expect a global economic recession, but anticipates the slowest growth since 2008 due to heightened tensions and policy uncertainty [1] - Approximately 70% of economies have had their growth forecasts downgraded, with a projected global growth rate of 2.3% in 2025, nearly half a percentage point lower than earlier predictions [1] - Developed economies are expected to grow by 1.2% this year, with the U.S. growth forecast significantly reduced from 2.3% to 1.4%, and both the Eurozone and Japan's growth downgraded to 0.7% [1] Group 2 - Nearly 60% of developing economies are projected to experience a slowdown, with growth for emerging markets and developing economies estimated at 3.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from previous forecasts [3] - The average growth rate for developing economies is expected to decline from 6% in the first decade of the 21st century to below 4% in the third decade, correlating with a decrease in global trade growth [3][4] - Global inflation is expected to remain elevated, with an average rate of 2.9% in 2025, still above pre-pandemic levels, driven by increased tariffs and tightening labor markets [3] Group 3 - The slowdown in growth will hinder efforts in developing economies to create jobs, reduce extreme poverty, and narrow the income gap with developed economies, with per capita income growth projected at 2.9% for 2025, 1.1 percentage points lower than the 2000-2019 average [4] - The World Bank suggests that global economic recovery in 2026 and 2027 will depend significantly on changes in global trade policies [5] - If major economies can alleviate trade tensions, global growth could rebound faster than expected, with potential increases of 0.2 percentage points in 2025 and 2026 if tariffs are halved [6] Group 4 - By region, East Asia and the Pacific are expected to see growth slow to 4.5% in 2025, while Europe and Central Asia's growth will drop to 2.4% in the same year, with slight recoveries in subsequent years [6] - The Middle East and North Africa region is projected to accelerate to 2.7% in 2025, while South Asia's growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2025, stabilizing at 6.2% in 2026 and 2027 [6]