Better Autonomous Driving Stock: Tesla or Uber? The Answer Might Surprise You.

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is a leader in the electric vehicle industry, but its focus on autonomous full self-driving (FSD) software may not be enough to maintain its competitive edge against companies like Uber, which is advancing in the commercialization of autonomous driving technology [1][2][17]. Tesla's Position - CEO Elon Musk has promised self-driving cars since the early 2010s, with plans to launch the Cybercab robotaxi in Texas and California this year [4]. - The Cybercab operates entirely on Tesla's FSD software, which has shown to outperform human drivers significantly, with a crash rate of one every 7.44 million miles compared to one every 702,000 miles for manual drivers [5][6]. - If FSD receives approval for unsupervised use, it could transform Tesla's economics by generating consistent revenue from passenger transport and small commercial deliveries [7][8]. - Ark Investment Management estimates that the Cybercab could generate $756 billion in annual revenue from autonomous ride-hailing by 2029, contingent on regulatory approval and market acceptance [8]. Uber's Position - Uber operates the largest ride-hailing network globally, with over 170 million monthly users, giving it a significant advantage over Tesla, which is starting from scratch [9]. - As of Q1 2025, Uber had 18 partnerships with autonomous technology developers, up from 14 six months prior, including a partnership with Waymo, which is already conducting over 250,000 paid autonomous rides weekly [10][11]. - Uber's gross bookings reached $42.8 billion in Q1, with a revenue of $11.5 billion after driver payments and merchant payouts, indicating a strong financial position [12]. - The potential to reduce driver costs through autonomous vehicles could significantly enhance Uber's profitability, as driver expenses are its largest cost [13]. Comparative Analysis - Uber's model allows it to partner with multiple autonomous vehicle developers without significant capital investment, providing flexibility and resilience against market changes [14]. - In contrast, Tesla must invest heavily in manufacturing Cybercabs, improving FSD, and building a ride-hailing network, which poses existential risks given its declining EV sales [15]. - Tesla's current stock valuation is high, with a P/E ratio of 171 compared to the Nasdaq-100's 30.6, making it difficult to justify its premium valuation amid shrinking earnings [16].