市值大涨4000亿：特斯拉Robotaxi的冰火两重天

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's market value surged by $400 billion following a significant increase in stock price due to strong market expectations for the launch of its fully autonomous Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas on June 12 [1] Group 1: Technological Advancements - Tesla's Robotaxi service is built on a decade of development in its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, featuring the new HW5.0 hardware platform that enhances computing power to 1.1 EFLOPS, a fivefold increase from the previous generation [2] - The Model Y, equipped with this platform, achieved a "zero-accident" record over 24,000 kilometers of real-world testing in Austin, utilizing a combination of four 4D millimeter-wave radars and twelve high-definition cameras for complex scenario recognition [2] - Tesla's unique "shadow mode" data collection strategy allows nearly 7 million Tesla vehicles to gather road condition data, providing over 16 million kilometers of "virtual driving mileage" daily, giving Tesla a significant edge in end-to-end model training [2] Group 2: Market Potential - Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2028, at least 15% of daily travel decisions will be made by autonomous driving systems, with Tesla's Robotaxi expected to generate revenue exceeding its vehicle sales by 2027 through a pay-per-mile model charging $0.5 per kilometer [2] - Tesla aims to produce a dedicated model, Cybercab, without a steering wheel or pedals by 2026, targeting a cost of $30,000 per unit to lower operational barriers [2] - The potential transformation from a $1.4 trillion electric vehicle manufacturer to a $28.1 trillion autonomous driving service provider highlights the significant market opportunity for Tesla [2] Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Despite technological leadership, Tesla's Robotaxi faces challenges including high operational costs, with competitors like Waymo incurring $100,000 to $200,000 per vehicle in modification costs, while Tesla aims to reduce this to one-third of traditional costs [3] - Regulatory hurdles exist, as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) reported a 45% increase in accident reports involving FSD, and current laws classify Robotaxi as Level 2 driving assistance, complicating liability issues [3] - Public trust remains a significant barrier, with 66% of Americans expressing fear of autonomous driving, and incidents of vandalism against autonomous vehicles highlighting societal concerns [4]