Allison Transmission: Heavy-Duty Profits And Low Expectations

Core Thesis - Allison Transmission (ALSN) remains a strong investment opportunity despite missing top-line estimates in 1Q25, with expectations for stock outperformance continuing [2] Business Overview - Allison Transmission operates a diversified business model with revenue streams from various segments, including 55% from North America on-highway, 20% from parts and support, 15% from international on-highway, 7% from defense, and 3% from global off-highway [4][3] - The company benefits from municipal spending, which constitutes 30% to 40% of its North America on-highway revenue, reducing end-market volatility [3] Market Position - Allison Transmission holds a majority market share in its core addressable market for class 4 through 8 vehicles in North America, with projected production growth of 1% annually through 2030 [5][6] Growth Opportunities - Management identified four opportunities expected to generate an additional $100 million in annual revenue each, totaling a potential $400 million [7] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the electric vehicle transition, with significant growth in its electric hybrid propulsion systems for buses, having delivered nearly 9,800 systems and generated over $1.5 billion in revenue since 2003 [9][8] Financial Performance - Allison Transmission has demonstrated strong fundamentals, with revenue and net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) growing at compounded annual rates of 4% and 9% since 2014 [12] - The NOPAT margin improved from 15% in 2014 to 25% in the TTM, with return on invested capital (ROIC) rising from 8% to 19% over the same period [13] Shareholder Returns - The company has returned $506 million in dividends since 2019 and increased quarterly dividends from $0.15/share in 1Q19 to $0.27/share in 1Q25, providing a current yield of 1.0% [16] - Share repurchases totaled $150 million in 1Q25, with $1.4 billion remaining under the current authorization, potentially yielding a combined dividend and repurchase yield of 7.9% [18][20] Cash Flow Generation - Allison Transmission has generated positive free cash flow (FCF) every year since 2013, totaling $3.4 billion from 2019 to 1Q25, which covers its dividend and share repurchase commitments [20][21] Competitive Positioning - The company maintains the highest profit margins in the industry, with the highest NOPAT margin and third-highest ROIC among competitors [24][23] Market Cyclicality - Despite long-term growth projections, the company acknowledges the cyclical nature of its markets, particularly in mining and construction [25][26] - Diversification across end markets helps mitigate overall business cyclicality [28] Valuation Insights - At a current price of $105/share, the market implies no profit growth, contrasting with historical growth rates of 4% and 9% for NOPAT [29] - If NOPAT grows at historical rates, the stock could be valued at least $129/share, indicating a potential upside of 23% [31]