逾4万亿元同业存单集中到期 银行负债端压力可控

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is facing significant liquidity pressure in June, with over 4 trillion yuan of interbank certificates of deposit maturing, alongside high net financing of government bonds, which poses challenges for banks' liability stability and liquidity management [1][2]. Group 1: Banking Sector Challenges - In June, the stability and liquidity management pressure of banks' liabilities have significantly increased due to the maturity of over 4 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit and high net financing of government bonds [1][2]. - The recent reduction in deposit rates by major banks, ranging from 5 to 25 basis points, is expected to alleviate the pricing pressure on loan market rates but may challenge banks' ability to attract deposits, potentially weakening liability stability [1][2]. - Analysts indicate that the demand for liquidity among banks is becoming increasingly urgent, necessitating support from regulatory authorities, particularly the central bank, to provide adequate liquidity through monetary policy tools [1][2]. Group 2: Liquidity Management and Market Response - Despite the pressure on banks' liabilities, the central bank's actions, including increased reverse repos and stabilizing market expectations, have contributed to a slowdown in the upward trend of deposit rates, leading to an initial easing of liquidity tension [2][3]. - The central bank's proactive measures, such as announcing a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repo in advance, aim to counteract market sentiment related to the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit and prevent excessive tightening of liquidity [3]. - As of June 11, the weighted average rate of DR007 improved to 1.53%, down from approximately 1.6% at the end of May, indicating a marginal easing of banks' liability pressure under the central bank's liquidity support [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts anticipate that the liquidity environment in June will maintain a "steady yet disturbed" pattern, despite uncertainties from government bond issuances and tax payments [3][4]. - The central bank's approach to liquidity management is expected to focus on "smoothing disturbances," with operations aimed at maintaining a stable liquidity environment [4]. - Overall, the liquidity situation is projected to remain reasonably ample, with funding rates expected to fluctuate within a narrow range above policy rates [4].