预计6月底全国能繁母猪存栏或转为下滑但幅度有限 生猪存栏量或仍处于增加趋势

Core Viewpoint - In May, both large-scale and medium-sized pig farming sectors experienced an increase in breeding sow inventory, with trends aligning between the two groups. However, as pig prices decline and profitability shrinks, changes in inventory levels may continue to reflect similar patterns in June [1][6][7]. Group 1: Breeding Sow Inventory - In May, the national breeding sow inventory increased month-on-month, with large-scale farms showing a shift from negative to positive growth, while medium-sized farms saw a narrowing increase [3][4]. - The increase in large-scale breeding sow inventory is attributed to ongoing expansion activities, including clearing and replanting, as well as replenishing stocks affected by previous pig diseases [3][4]. - Medium-sized farms faced a decline in piglet transaction enthusiasm and prices, leading to a more cautious approach, which resulted in a slower growth rate in breeding sow inventory [3][4]. Group 2: Pig Inventory - The national pig inventory also saw a month-on-month increase in May, with large-scale farms experiencing a narrowing growth rate while medium-sized farms shifted from a decrease to an increase [4][6]. - The average weight of pigs traded in May showed a slight decline, which, combined with falling prices and rising temperatures, led to reduced confidence among farmers, particularly in large-scale operations [4][6]. - Medium-sized farms benefited from lower costs for secondary fattening and feed, contributing to an increase in pig inventory as they did not sell off previously fattened pigs before the Dragon Boat Festival [4][6]. Group 3: Outlook for June - In June, piglet prices are expected to decline further, with many regions seeing prices drop below 500 yuan per head, and southern regions experiencing pig prices falling below the cost line of 14 yuan per kilogram [6][7]. - As profitability continues to decrease, both large-scale and medium-sized farms may adjust their strategies, with large farms potentially reducing weight and production to avoid losses, while medium-sized farms may accelerate the culling of breeding sows [6][7]. - Despite the anticipated decline in breeding sow inventory by the end of June, the decrease is expected to be limited due to ongoing expansion activities in certain regions [7].