温和通胀提升降息预期 美债收益率盘中跳水

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a positive shift following the release of May's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was lower than expected, leading to increased bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The May CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly above April's 2.3% but below the market expectation of 2.5% [1]. - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.1%, lower than both April's and market expectations of 0.2% [1]. - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8% year-on-year, matching April's increase but falling short of the expected 2.9% [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 4.95 basis points to 4.42%, while the 2-year yield dropped by 6.66 basis points to 3.95% [1]. - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut before September increased by 12.7 percentage points to 70.4% [2]. Group 3: Government Actions and Statements - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin described the inflation data as "very good," noting that inflation is at its lowest level since 2021 due to slowing costs in housing, food, and energy [2]. - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $39 billion in 10-year notes with a yield of 4.421%, which was lower than the pre-auction market yield [2]. - The demand for the auction remained strong, with indirect bids accounting for 70.6% and direct bids at 20.5%, significantly above the recent averages [2]. Group 4: Fiscal Situation - The federal budget deficit expanded to $316 billion in May, bringing the cumulative deficit for the fiscal year to $1.36 trillion, a 14% increase compared to the same period last year [3].