全球央行2025年购金热情有所降温

Core Insights - Central banks are increasingly turning to gold as a reserve asset, making it the second-largest reserve asset globally in 2024, following the US dollar [1] - The share of gold in global official reserves is projected to rise to 19% in 2024, while the euro's share will decrease to 16% [1] - Central banks currently account for over 20% of global gold demand, a significant increase from about 10% in the 2010s [1] Group 1: Central Bank Demand - Central banks purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024, but there was a notable slowdown in purchases in the first quarter of 2025, with a 33% decrease compared to the previous quarter [2] - The European Central Bank noted that gold is becoming increasingly attractive to emerging and developing countries [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite a reduction in central bank purchases, factors supporting gold prices remain strong, with recommendations for investors to diversify portfolios with gold and hedge funds [4] - The uncertainty in global markets, particularly due to US tariff policies, has increased gold price volatility [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that central banks will continue to allocate a larger portion of their reserves to gold as a hedge against global financial, inflation, and geopolitical risks [5] - Approximately 70% of gold demand still comes from the jewelry and investment sectors, indicating a diverse demand landscape [5] Group 4: Supply Considerations - Historical data suggests that gold supply has been responsive to demand growth, and further increases in official gold reserves may support global gold supply growth [6]