新股解读|颖通控股：直面“去中介化”洪流，香水“中介”难做？

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ying Tong Holdings, is set to become the first publicly listed perfume company in Hong Kong, with its IPO process underway and backed by BNP Paribas and CITIC Securities as joint sponsors [1][2]. Company Overview - Ying Tong Holdings, established in 1987, is the fourth largest perfume group in mainland China, with a market share of approximately 8.1% as of 2023 [2][3]. - The company's product portfolio includes perfumes, cosmetics, skincare products, personal care items, eyewear, and home fragrances, with perfume sales projected to generate revenue of 1.687 billion yuan in the fiscal year 2025, accounting for 80.9% of total revenue [2][3]. Business Strategy - The company employs a dual strategy focusing on brand product distribution and market deployment services, facilitating global brands' entry and expansion in the Chinese market [6][9]. - Ying Tong Holdings has established a comprehensive sales network covering over 400 cities in China, with more than 100 self-operated offline sales points and over 8,000 retail points [6][9]. Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 1.699 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.083 billion yuan in 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7% [7][8]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 173 million yuan in 2023 to 227 million yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 14.5% [7][8]. - The gross profit margin has remained stable at around 50.3% during the same period [7][8]. Market Trends - The Chinese perfume market is experiencing significant growth, with retail sales expected to rise from 26.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 47.7 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 12.8% [16][17]. - Consumer perception of perfumes is shifting from luxury items to everyday products, driven by rising disposable incomes and increased brand investments in the Chinese market [9][16]. Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges related to rising costs, as the cost of goods sold is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.05%, outpacing revenue growth [11][12]. - There is a risk of "disintermediation" as international brands increasingly establish direct sales channels, which could impact the company's market position and bargaining power with suppliers [13][15]. - The company plans to use funds raised from its IPO to expand its own brand offerings and enhance digital capabilities to mitigate these risks [15].