关税传导效应不明显 美国5月CPI数据低于预期

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the U.S. was lower than expected, with overall CPI growth declining from 0.2% in April to 0.1% in May, and core CPI dropping from 0.24% to 0.13% [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet fully materialized, as companies have been absorbing costs and utilizing pre-purchased inventory to mitigate the effects of tariffs [1][2] - The market maintains expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice after September, despite the lower-than-expected inflation data [1][4] Group 2 - The analysis highlights that many retailers are selling goods purchased before the implementation of tariffs at lower prices, which temporarily alleviates inflationary pressures [2] - The core inflation year-on-year growth rate remained at 2.8%, indicating that inflation concerns have not dissipated, and a potential price increase may be observed in the coming months [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have increased, with the probability of a rate cut in September rising from 53.5% to 61.6% following the CPI data release [4][6] Group 3 - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with the one-year inflation expectation increasing to 6.6%, the highest since November 2023, driven by uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to adjust its inflation forecasts slightly upward in the upcoming June meeting, but may adopt a more hawkish stance due to stable labor market conditions [7][8] - Analysts believe that the current inflation data is a positive sign for the Federal Reserve, but they will likely wait for more data before making significant decisions regarding interest rates [7][8]