“影子联储主席”是谁？候选名单锁定这四人

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" for the Federal Reserve by President Trump has sparked market interest, with a narrowed list of candidates including Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, and Scott Bessent, each with distinct policy inclinations [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Candidates - The candidates for the next Federal Reserve chairman include Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, and Scott Bessent, each bringing unique perspectives and policy preferences [1]. - Kevin Warsh is noted for his hawkish stance and criticism of the Fed's quantitative easing policies, while Christopher Waller has shown a more dovish approach, suggesting that tariffs' impact on inflation is temporary [5][6]. - Kevin Hassett's chances are considered low due to limited monetary policy experience and perceptions of being too close to the government [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The market currently anticipates that there is little chance of a rate cut in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with expectations for any potential cuts being pushed to September [3]. - Recent inflation data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in May's CPI, with core CPI rising 2.8%, both figures below expectations, leading to a cautious stance from Fed officials regarding immediate rate cuts [2]. Group 3: Impact of a "Shadow Chairman" - The concept of a "shadow chairman" could undermine the current chairman Jerome Powell's authority and complicate the communication of the Fed's interest rate strategy [7]. - The influence of a "shadow chairman" may be limited, as significant policy changes require a majority vote from the FOMC, which currently lacks support for aggressive rate cuts [7].