东盟加速去美元化，新战略计划力推本币结算释放什么信号

Core Viewpoint - The trend of dedollarization in ASEAN and Asia is accelerating due to geopolitical uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and the demand for currency hedging, as highlighted in the recent Economic Community Strategic Plan for 2026 to 2030 [1][3] Group 1: Dedollarization Trends - ASEAN is committed to promoting the use of local currencies in trade and investment to reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations [1] - Analysts believe that the situation in ASEAN reflects a broader trend in Asia and globally, with a potential acceleration in dedollarization efforts [1][3] - The demand for the dollar is expected to decline significantly in trade-dependent economies, particularly among the ASEAN 10+3 countries [3] Group 2: Investment Implications - Dedollarization is expected to manifest in investment patterns as Asian investors increasingly hedge their dollar exposure [4] - Institutional investors, such as life insurance companies and pension funds, are actively engaging in currency hedging, with Japanese life insurers' hedging ratio projected to rise from 44% to around 48% [5] - The shift towards alternative currencies, such as the yen and won, is gaining attention as a response to the declining dollar [5] Group 3: Global Dollar Dynamics - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from over 70% in 2000 to an estimated 57.8% in 2024, reflecting a broader trend of reduced reliance on the dollar [5] - Despite the acceleration of dedollarization, analysts caution that the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency remains intact, as it still accounts for over half of global trade [6][7] - The weakening of the dollar is viewed as a cyclical phenomenon rather than a structural change, with no other currency currently matching the dollar's liquidity and market depth [7]