The Motley Fool·2025-06-12 08:40Group 1: Tesla's Market Position - Tesla's stock experienced a significant decline, losing approximately $150 billion in market capitalization in a single day, marking a 15% drop, and is down about 6% since the end of May [1] - Tesla's estimated market share of U.S. EV sales has decreased from 75% in early 2022 to under 45% in Q1 2025, with similar trends observed in Europe and China [4] - Tesla's market share losses have not benefited Rivian, as Rivian's share in the U.S. is only 2.9% in Q1 2025, down from a peak of 5% in Q3 2023, with legacy automakers like General Motors gaining ground [5] Group 2: Rivian's Market Strategy - Rivian is launching a more affordable SUV, the R2, priced around $45,000 before upgrades, with deliveries expected to start in 2026, aiming to capture a broader customer base [8] - Rivian's vehicle deliveries are projected to decline to 40,000 to 46,000 in 2025 from 51,000 in 2024, indicating a need for significant growth to achieve positive cash flow [9] - The R2's success is critical for Rivian, as the company is currently burning around $2 billion in free cash flow annually, despite a recent improvement in gross margin to 17% [12] Group 3: Financial Outlook for Rivian - Rivian has $8.5 billion in liquidity, with additional funding expected from a partnership with Volkswagen and a potential Department of Energy loan, providing a financial buffer for several years [13] - Despite a low market cap of $16.6 billion, Rivian's stock is considered a high-risk investment due to the potential for significant downside if the company fails to achieve positive free cash flow [14][15]