中国工程院院士贺克斌：面对“双碳”目标，如何推动技术驱动的工业碳中和？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China is committed to announcing its 2035 national contribution target for all greenhouse gases before the UN Climate Change Conference in November, emphasizing the importance of technology in achieving carbon neutrality goals [1][2] - Current carbon neutrality technologies are primarily in experimental and demonstration stages, with about 50% not yet in application, particularly in low-carbon fuels and carbon capture technologies [1][2] - Industrial carbon neutrality technologies are particularly challenging, with 70% of the 45 listed technologies still in demonstration or theoretical stages, highlighting the need for structural adjustments in the industrial sector [2][4] Group 2 - The steel industry example illustrates that 70% of China's production capacity uses long-process steelmaking, while short-process and hydrogen steelmaking technologies are gradually being adopted [4] - Cost remains a significant barrier to technology-driven carbon reduction, necessitating market mechanisms like carbon pricing to facilitate the transition of technologies from laboratories to market applications [4][5] - China's carbon price currently fluctuates around $10, while international markets are around $100, indicating potential for significant price increases in the future [4] Group 3 - The shift towards green energy is expected to disrupt existing energy structures, with a projected need for mineral resources for new energy by 2040 comparable to 2020 coal extraction levels [5][6] - The distribution of energy resources is changing, with clean technology minerals having a new geographical distribution compared to fossil fuels, which are concentrated in a few countries [5] - The transition from reliance on energy resources to dependence on energy technology is crucial for future economic development [5][6] Group 4 - The rapid development of renewable energy technologies in China over the past decade presents opportunities for collaboration with Belt and Road Initiative countries, which have abundant wind and solar resources [6] - The stability of the power grid is essential for the large-scale application of wind and solar energy, with the next five years being critical for addressing these challenges in China [6]