贸易不确定性拖累美元，多头大举押注亚洲货币

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade agreement has led to increased bullish bets on most Asian currencies, with the New Taiwan Dollar and South Korean Won seeing significant gains in long positions [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Trends - The bullish positions for the New Taiwan Dollar have reached their highest level since December 2020, with a 10% increase this year largely attributed to a surge last month [2]. - The South Korean Won's bullish bets have reached their strongest level in nearly two and a half years, with an over 8% increase this year following the election of liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung as President [1][2]. - The Chinese Yuan has also seen a slight increase in bullish positions, reaching a high not seen since October of the previous year [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - The market is focused on the US-China trade negotiations, which have resulted in a framework agreement that includes tariff arrangements and the lifting of export restrictions on rare earth minerals from China [1]. - Despite the temporary easing of tensions, there is a strong market demand for details on the implementation of the agreement [1]. - The US dollar index has fallen over 9% this year, with expectations of further weakness in the coming months, which is favorable for Asian currencies [1]. Group 3: Currency Positioning Survey - The survey analyzed current market positions for nine Asian emerging market currencies, including the Chinese Yuan, South Korean Won, Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, New Taiwan Dollar, Indian Rupee, Philippine Peso, Malaysian Ringgit, and Thai Baht [2]. - The survey utilized a net long/short position scoring system ranging from -3 to +3, where +3 indicates a significant bullish sentiment towards the US dollar [2]. - The only currency showing a reversal in trend is the Indian Rupee, which turned slightly bearish following an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut by the Indian central bank [2].