【财经分析】标普再度逼近历史高位，美股还能走多远？

Market Overview - After experiencing policy fluctuations, market risk appetite has rebounded, with US stocks showing a strong recovery over the past month, bringing the S&P 500 index close to historical highs [1] - As of June 11, the S&P 500 index closed at 6022.24 points, reflecting an 18% rebound from early April, while the Nasdaq Composite index saw a 26% increase during the same period [1] Analyst Predictions - Several Wall Street investment banks have expressed optimistic expectations for the US stock market, with Goldman Sachs projecting a 10% increase in the S&P 500 index by the end of 2025, raising its target to 6500 points [4] - Citigroup has also raised its target for the S&P 500 index to 6300 points, anticipating a further 5% increase [4] - Analysts indicate that after the recent rise, valuations have reached historical highs, leading some investors to exit the market, suggesting limited upward potential for US stocks moving forward [4] Economic Factors - The Chief Investment Officer of Wells Fargo, Darrell Cronk, believes that the US stock market will experience more dramatic volatility this year compared to the previous two years, with significant fluctuations expected in the second half of 2025 [5] - Despite the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, core inflation is showing signs of recovery, and there are risks of inflation rising due to potential tariff costs being passed on to consumers [5] - The impact of the Trump tax cuts may also play a significant role in the US stock market, presenting both opportunities and risks for economic growth and valuations [5] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 has risen to 27.82, indicating that US stocks are still relatively high in terms of valuation [6] - The expectation for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) growth is 7% for the second half of 2025 and 14% for 2026, although some analysts believe these projections may be overly optimistic given the potential impact of tariff policies [5][6] Asset Allocation Trends - There is a noticeable shift in global investment strategies from "dollar asset allocation" to "non-dollar asset reallocation," emphasizing the importance of diversified asset allocation [8] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is prompting countries to adjust their balance sheets, which may increase demand for Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like consumption, smart devices, robotics, and automation [8] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is expected to experience significant development opportunities, with relative valuations likely to rise and expansion opportunities on the horizon [9] - The Hang Seng Index's dynamic P/E ratio is currently at 10.37, while the Hang Seng Tech Index stands at 19.96, indicating that both indices have room for valuation recovery compared to major overseas indices [9]