JD.com Underperforms Industry in 3 Months: Should You Book Profits?

Core Viewpoint - JD.com has experienced a significant decline in share price, dropping 18.5% over the past three months, underperforming both the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth for JD.com remains solid, with a year-over-year increase of 16% in Q1 2025, but the company is facing challenges with thinning margins across its core and emerging businesses, raising concerns about long-term profitability [2][6]. - JD reported a non-GAAP operating margin of 3.9% in Q1 2025, with JD Retail achieving a margin of 4.9%, up from 4.1% a year ago. However, JD Logistics had a margin of only 0.3%, and the New Businesses segment reported a non-GAAP operating loss of RMB 1.3 billion, equating to a negative margin of 23.1% [6][7]. Cost Pressures - Fulfillment costs increased by 17.4% year over year to RMB 19.7 billion, which is outpacing revenue growth and raising concerns about the company's ability to achieve meaningful margin expansion [7]. - Marketing and R&D expenses have also risen, further limiting JD's capacity to scale profitably [7]. Competitive Landscape - JD.com operates in a highly competitive market, facing significant pressure from rivals such as Alibaba, which holds approximately 80% of China's market share, and PDD Holdings, which attracts price-sensitive consumers with discounts [10][11]. - Competitors like Meituan are also a threat in the food delivery sector, where JD has recently launched its own service [12]. Strategic Initiatives - JD is aggressively investing in new growth areas, including food delivery and AI, but these initiatives are still in early stages and have not yet produced significant financial returns [8][9]. - The company acknowledges that many operational systems are still under development, focusing on scaling rather than immediate profitability, which adds risk in a competitive environment [9]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JD's 2025 earnings is $3.81 per share, revised downward by 16.9% over the past 30 days, indicating a year-over-year decline of 10.56%. The revenue estimate for 2025 is $179 billion, suggesting an 11.35% year-over-year growth [13]. Valuation - JD currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 8.08X, significantly lower than the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry's average of 24.31X, indicating a potentially undervalued stock relative to expected earnings growth [14]. Conclusion - Despite a low valuation, JD's recent stock performance and business fundamentals raise concerns. The company's aggressive expansion efforts have yet to yield meaningful returns, while ongoing margin pressures and rising costs persist [15][18].