高赤字与关税不确定性主导下半年市场 美联储主席更替或引发波动

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are expected to be dominated by high fiscal deficits and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies as 2024 approaches, with bond yields continuing to play a pivotal role in market direction [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - President Trump is anticipated to announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to increased market volatility and affect long-term U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The current Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, faces criticism from Trump regarding interest rate policies, especially after the recent CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in May, lower than market expectations [1] - Market consensus suggests that any successor to Powell is likely to support interest rate cuts [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Tariff Policies - Economic growth in the U.S. is projected to be slow in Q4, but could accelerate if tariff uncertainties are resolved, with Trump indicating a potential increase in tariffs on July 9 [3] - A preliminary agreement has been reached between the U.S. and China regarding a 55% tariff, which could stabilize market operations [3] Group 3: Fiscal Deficits and Bond Market - The House of Representatives has passed a tax reform bill expected to add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, with projections indicating that by 2026, the deficit will account for 7% of GDP [3] - The bond market may experience "phase-like yield spikes" due to fiscal pressures, but yields are expected to eventually stabilize as funds flow into higher-yielding assets [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is anticipated to fluctuate between 3.75% and 4.625%, which will have broad implications for mortgage and other credit rates [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fed Strategy - The Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock, Rick Rieder, suggests that if economic conditions remain weak, there is still a possibility of rate cuts in September, while Bank of America economists predict that cuts may not occur until next year [2] - MUFG's macro strategy head, George Goncalves, believes the 10-year Treasury yield will hover between 4% and 4.5%, emphasizing that the Fed's hesitation to act may be misplaced [4]