Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May fell slightly below expectations, with year-on-year CPI rising from 2.3% to 2.4%, while core CPI remained steady at 2.8% [1] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, lower than both the expected and previous value of 0.2%, and core CPI also rose by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% and previous 0.2% [1] - Factors contributing to the CPI's lower-than-expected performance include a decline in energy prices, a continued drop in automobile prices, and a slowdown in rent and super core services price increases [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the futures market pricing in an average of 1.97 rate cuts for the year, and the probability of a first cut in September rising from 50.9% to 61.3% [2] - The effective tariff rate in the US has decreased to 7.07%, significantly lower than the estimated 13-20% by overseas institutions, potentially due to tax avoidance measures [3] - The first sale rule allows importers to calculate tariffs based on the first sale price, which may mitigate the impact of increased tariffs [3] Group 3 - Concerns about inflation due to tariffs remain, with the potential for upward inflation risks unless tariffs are continuously suspended or canceled [5] - Consumer inflation expectations in the US have surged, with one-year and five-year expectations at near 45-year and 25-year highs, respectively [5] - Despite a significant number of brands and retail executives anticipating negative consumer reactions to price increases, a majority still plan to raise prices [6]
华创证券：美国5月份CPI再度小幅低于预期 关税通胀的担忧是否能够解除？
智通财经网·2025-06-12 23:04