农药行业产销格局有望重塑

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of the "one certificate, one product" policy in China's pesticide industry, which aims to eliminate the long-standing issue of "one certificate for multiple products" and trigger significant structural changes in the agricultural input sector [1][2] - The new policy requires each pesticide product to have an independent registration certificate, which will greatly standardize the pesticide market and address the confusion among consumers regarding product quality [1] - Currently, there are approximately 1,920 pesticide production companies in China, with 1,068 companies holding around 20 registration certificates each, while 161 companies possess only one certificate, indicating a reliance on renting certificates for survival [1] Group 2 - Industry experts predict that over 80% of pesticide products may face delisting due to non-compliance with the new regulations, potentially reducing the number of market brands from over 160,000 to around 30,000 [2] - The implementation of the "one certificate, one product" policy is expected to shift the market from a state of product surplus to one of supply shortages, leading to a situation where some products may become unavailable [2] - Leading pesticide companies with abundant registration resources, strong R&D capabilities, and established market channels are likely to benefit from this transformation, while smaller companies relying on the old model may face significant challenges [2]