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海外SAF需求回暖,UCO-HVO/SAF价格同步上涨 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-06-13 03:23

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the rising prices of HVO and SAF in Europe due to strong seasonal demand, which is expected to drive up UCO prices in China as well [1][2]. Group 1: HVO/SAF Price Trends - As of June 11, 2025, the prices for HVO and SAF in Europe are $2,002 and $1,949 per ton, reflecting increases of 13.97% and 11.60% respectively from their lowest points in Q2 2025 [1][2]. - The increase in SAF demand is attributed to the strong seasonal demand ahead of the summer flight season in Europe, with high-quality HVO experiencing a larger price increase [1][2]. Group 2: UCO Price Dynamics - In China, as of June 12, 2025, the prices for gutter oil and waste oil in East China are 6,250 and 6,650 RMB per ton, showing increases of 3.31% and 2.31% respectively from their lowest points in Q2 2025 [2]. - The rising demand for HVO and SAF overseas has led to increased inquiries for UCO in Chinese ports, resulting in a price increase for UCO [2]. Group 3: EU SAF Policy and Cost Implications - The EU is gradually implementing a 2% SAF blending policy, with measures such as an environmental surcharge of 6-20 euros being introduced by some airlines to cover the costs associated with SAF blending [3]. - Despite these measures, the compliance costs for using SAF in Europe remain high, with an estimated total cost of $12 billion for purchasing 1 million tons of SAF by 2025, potentially doubling the procurement costs for airlines [3]. Group 4: Future Demand for UCO - The demand for SAF is expected to grow steadily, which will likely increase the demand for UCO as EU end-user demand recovers and SAF production facilities continue to actively procure raw materials [4]. - The price of UCO is influenced by the procurement levels of HVO and SAF plants, with a notable increase in UCO demand observed since 2025 due to its strong carbon reduction attributes [5].