地缘恐慌加剧油价飙升 以伊冲突或陷入“死亡螺旋”

Core Insights - Israel launched a significant attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and missile bases, prompting Iran to vow severe retaliation against both Israel and the U.S., despite U.S. denial of involvement [1] - The attack resulted in a spike in oil prices and targeted high-level military commanders, with reports indicating the death of IRGC commander Hossein Salami [1] Geopolitical Analysis - Experts suggest that destroying Iranian facilities would require sustained bombing over several days, ideally using heavy bunker-busting bombs, as many facilities are deeply buried [2] - Iran's potential retaliation could target military bases or civilian areas, with the possibility of indiscriminate attacks leading to a significant escalation of conflict [2][3] - The conflict is expected to remain regional, with Sunni Arab states likely to covertly support Israel, while Iran's global retaliation may not escalate into a larger war without major power backing [3] Long-term Implications - The current military action is viewed as part of a prolonged campaign rather than a one-time strike, with expectations of varied responses from Iran [3] - The impact on Iran's nuclear program may be limited unless Israel employs unexpected tactics, indicating a strategic gamble rather than a definitive solution [5] - The situation is described as precarious, with the potential for significant political ramifications if key Iranian leaders are targeted [5]