美银：“新产品”将成2026年奢侈品销量回暖关键变量

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America reports a 1% year-over-year decline in luxury goods revenue for Q1 2025, a 4 percentage point drop from Q4 2024, indicating a slowdown across all regions [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The luxury goods sector is expected to show mixed signals in Q2 2025, with both positive and negative indicators [1] - Despite global economic volatility, local demand remains strong in Europe, Asia, and the Americas [1] - The tourism sectors in Japan and Europe are deteriorating, with a full recovery unlikely [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - EBIT profit margin outlook for H1 2025 is uncertain, with revenue weakness exerting pressure on profitability [1] - Bank of America projects a 6% lower profit expectation for H1 2025 compared to market consensus [1] - The luxury goods sector is currently trading at a 22x P/E ratio, within the historical valuation range [1] Group 3: Regional Performance - In the Americas, luxury spending improved by 3 percentage points in Q2, with jewelry spending up 4 percentage points [5] - In Europe, tourism spending dropped by 8 percentage points, while local consumption remains stable [5] - In Japan, tourism spending is expected to decline by 30-50 percentage points, leading to a 16 percentage point negative impact [5] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - LVMH's Q2 performance is critical for assessing its fashion and leather goods division, with a potential EBIT margin pressure [6] - Hermès is expected to see a 9% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2, with an EBIT margin of 40.1% [6] - Kering's Q2 performance is anticipated to align with previous guidance, with upcoming comments during earnings expected to influence market expectations for H2 2025 and 2026 [6] - Richemont's jewelry business remains strong, but market consensus on margins may be overly optimistic [6] - Moncler is projected to have flat revenue in Q2, with a 4% growth in retail revenue [6] - Prada's revenue is expected to decline by 1% in Q2 due to adverse factors in Japan, while Miu Miu is expected to grow by 40% [6] - Zegna is expected to see a 5% revenue growth in Q2, up from 4% in Q1 [6] - Swatch is projected to break even in H1 2025 [6]