新兴市场股票风光不再？期权市场押注回调风险逼近

Group 1 - Emerging market stocks have unexpectedly become a significant source of returns for U.S. traders during the volatility of the S&P 500 index caused by President Trump's trade war [1] - The Cboe volatility index (VIX) has been higher than the Cboe emerging markets ETF volatility index for 48 out of the past 54 trading days, indicating increased investor interest in emerging markets to mitigate risks [1] - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has risen by 14% year-to-date, marking the largest excess return relative to the S&P 500 since 2009 [1] Group 2 - Speculators are preparing for potential increased volatility in emerging markets as the 90-day "tariff pause" initiated by the Trump administration is set to expire [4] - The number of put options open contracts relative to call options for the emerging markets ETF is nearing its highest level since December of the previous year [4] - Market strategist Matt Maley anticipates a short-term pullback in emerging market stocks relative to the S&P 500 index [4] Group 3 - Positive developments in trade negotiations could boost the S&P 500 index, as significant progress has been reported in talks with China [7] - Investors are pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, hoping that Trump's tax cuts will drive corporate earnings and domestic economic growth [7] - The current upward momentum in the U.S. stock market may diminish the relative advantage of emerging markets, with the S&P 500 nearing historical highs [7] Group 4 - A weaker dollar may continue to benefit emerging markets, as their stock valuations remain cheaper compared to U.S. stocks [7] - Matt Maley suggests that emerging market stocks may be available at more attractive prices in late June [7] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has become a stabilizing force for emerging market assets, with varying outcomes expected from trade negotiations across the 24 countries covered by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index [7]