Jin Rong Jie·2025-06-13 11:56Group 1 - The Israeli airstrikes on Iran have raised concerns about potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies, leading to a significant increase in international oil prices [2][3] - On June 13, Brent crude oil surged over 13% to $78.5, while WTI crude rose by 14% to $77.62, indicating a volatile market response to geopolitical tensions [2] - Iran's oil production is projected to reach 200 million tons in 2024, accounting for 4% of global oil output, with the Strait of Hormuz being a critical route for approximately 30% of global seaborne oil trade [2][3] Group 2 - Market analysts suggest that a strong blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could significantly impact global oil supply, with Morgan Stanley estimating a potential reduction of 2.1 million barrels per day in Iranian oil exports [3] - Current oil prices are around $70, which is approximately $4 higher than the estimated fair value of $66, indicating that the market has priced in a 7% probability of worst-case scenarios [3] - The geopolitical situation has created a favorable environment for oil and gas exploration and production companies, as well as oilfield service providers, potentially leading to structural investment opportunities [3]