MPOB报告与预期偏差不大 短期棕榈油震荡运行

Group 1 - The USDA's latest supply and demand report indicates that Malaysia's palm oil production for the 2025/26 season is projected at 19.5 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons from last month's estimate and 100,000 tons year-on-year [1] - Exports are expected to reach 16.1 million tons, up by 300,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [1] - Domestic consumption is projected at 3.635 million tons, slightly up by 50,000 tons from last month but down 4% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The ending stock is expected to be 2.194 million tons, an increase of approximately 200,000 tons from last month and slightly higher than last year's 2.18 million tons [1] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures notes that the increase in palm oil production may slow down, while export demand remains strong, with a significant rise in India's palm oil imports in May [2] - Ningzheng Futures states that the MPOB report aligns with expectations, indicating a neutral overall data trend, with domestic palm oil inventory increasing week-on-week [2]