【财经分析】美元再破关键支撑位，下半年人民币资产有重估机遇

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing downward pressure on the US dollar due to uncertainties surrounding US government policies, with the dollar index falling to a three-year low as of June 12, 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Affecting the US Dollar - The US dollar is expected to have further downward space in the second half of the year, influenced by weak economic data and geopolitical disturbances [3][4]. - The high-interest rate environment, driven by a decline in US credit expansion, has placed the dollar in a precarious position [4][5]. - The correlation between US residents' net assets and the dollar index remains strong, with stock net assets showing a stronger correlation than housing net assets [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators, such as non-farm payrolls and consumer confidence, have shown weakness, contributing to the decline of the dollar index [6][7]. - The US added 139,000 non-farm jobs in May, but revisions to previous months' data indicate a concerning trend in employment growth [6][7]. - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has rapidly declined, reaching levels comparable to those during the Fed's aggressive rate hikes in 2022 [6]. Group 3: Predictions and Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley predicts a significant depreciation of the dollar, forecasting a 9% drop in the dollar index over the next year [7]. - The uncertainty surrounding US trade policies is leading to increased bullish positions on Asian currencies against the dollar, with notable increases in positions for the New Taiwan Dollar and South Korean Won [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs expresses a long-term bullish outlook on the Chinese yuan, predicting a 3% appreciation within the next 12 months [9].