OXY Stock Outperforms Industry in Last Two Months: How to Play

Core Viewpoint - Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) has seen an 18.8% increase in share price over the last two months, outperforming the Zacks Oil and Gas-Integrated-United States industry's growth of 12.2% [1][8]. Group 1: Performance and Market Position - Occidental's share price increase of 18.8% surpasses other industry operators such as ConocoPhillips (COP) and Hess Corporation (HES), which gained 9.6% and 9.8%, respectively [2]. - The company is currently trading above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating a bullish trend [5]. - Occidental's operational performance is bolstered by its strategic acquisition of CrownRock assets, which has enhanced production and reduced operating costs [10][8]. Group 2: Production and Financial Strategy - Occidental aims to strengthen its balance sheet by reducing short-term debt by $4.5 billion in 2024 and further decreasing outstanding debt by mid-2027 through free cash flow and divestment of non-core assets [11]. - The company projects total production in 2025 to be between 1,390 and 1,440 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d), with the Permian Basin contributing approximately 760–786 Mboe/d [12]. - To support growth, Occidental plans to invest between $3.5 billion and $3.7 billion in the Permian Basin in 2025, with a target of drilling 515 to 565 wells by year-end [13]. Group 3: Earnings and Valuation - Occidental has consistently surpassed earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 24.34% [16]. - However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Occidental's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has decreased by 26.09% and 27.17%, respectively, over the past 60 days [19]. - The company's shares are currently trading at a premium, with a trailing 12-month Enterprise Value/Earnings before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA TTM) of 5.11X compared to the industry average of 4.85X [21]. Group 4: Return on Equity - Occidental's return on equity (ROE) stands at 16.6%, which is slightly below the industry average of 16.89% [25]. Group 5: Summary and Outlook - Despite facing challenges from volatile commodity prices and declining earnings estimates, Occidental's strong domestic operations and strategic acquisitions are expected to support its performance [27].