国盛证券研究所副所长、首席钢铁行业分析师笃慧：康波周期轮动中A股机会凸显

Group 1: Global Economic Kondratieff Cycle - The Kondratieff cycle, proposed by economist Kondratieff, suggests that the global economy oscillates in 50 to 60-year cycles, characterized by phases of recovery, prosperity, recession, and depression [2] - The current global Kondratieff cycle indicates that leading countries are facing technological stagnation, while catching-up countries may leverage latecomer advantages for industrial upgrades [2] Group 2: Metal Commodities Outlook - Metal commodities are expected to perform well as the Kondratieff cycle progresses, with gold representing financial attributes and steel representing commodity attributes [3] - The demand for metals is shifting from investment-driven to consumption-driven, leading to a more stable demand profile, with supply-side factors becoming more significant [4] Group 3: A-Share Market Expectations - The A-share market is anticipated to exhibit a different trend compared to the past, supported by improving funding factors [5][6] - Key funding factors influencing the A-share market include total monetary environment, household wealth allocation, financial institutions' asset allocation needs, corporate buybacks, and inflows of foreign capital [7]