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重大不确定性袭来!美股本轮涨势将迎严峻考验
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-06-15 03:00

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced volatility last week, influenced by developments in US-China trade negotiations and rising tensions in the Middle East due to Israel's strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a retreat in major indices [1][4] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) surged by 22%, indicating increased market volatility and returning above the long-term average of 20 [1][4] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance in the upcoming meeting, with recent economic data showing improvement, including a 0.1% month-over-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a year-over-year growth of 2.4% [2][3] - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose from 95.8 to 98.8, ending a four-month decline, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased from 52.2 to 60.5, surpassing market expectations [2][3] Employment and Inflation - Initial jobless claims remained steady at 248,000, while continuing claims rose by 54,000 to a cycle high of 1.956 million, indicating some weakness in hiring [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-over-month decline of 0.1% and a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, aligning with or falling below market expectations [2][3] Market Sentiment and Sector Performance - The energy sector saw a significant increase of 5.7%, driven by a surge in international oil prices, while the financial sector declined by 2.6% [4] - Bank of America noted that as long as oil prices do not continue to rise sharply, the stock market's upward trend could persist, despite geopolitical tensions [5] Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - Historical trends suggest a potential slowdown in market momentum as it enters the "summer lull" period, with concerns about earnings growth in the second half of the year [5] - Investors are advised to remain cautious due to the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation and upcoming US retail sales reports [6]