智通财经网·2025-06-15 09:02Group 1 - The Hang Seng AH premium index has dropped below 128 points, the lowest level since June 2020, indicating a significant contraction in the AH premium rate [1] - The AH premium rate has experienced rapid contractions multiple times over the past three years, with notable levels around 130 points in January, May, and October of 2023, before widening again [1] - The current weighted AH premium rate has narrowed from 64.6% to 42.2% as of June 6, 2023, a decrease of 22.4 percentage points [7] Group 2 - The relative elasticity between A-shares and H-shares has changed since 2021, with the AH premium rate showing a negative correlation with the CSI 300 index, indicating that Hong Kong stocks have become more elastic [2] - The contribution to the AH premium rate's narrowing has been significant from sectors such as non-bank financials, banks, and oil and petrochemicals, which together account for nearly 60% of the market capitalization [6][7] - Growth stocks in the Hong Kong market have also seen significant price increases, contributing to the narrowing of the AH premium [6] Group 3 - The most significant contributors to the narrowing of the AH premium rate this year include non-bank financials, banks, oil and petrochemicals, semiconductors, and electrical equipment, with respective contributions of -5.4, -5.3, -2.9, -1.5, and -1.0 percentage points [7] - High dividend yield stocks generally do not exhibit high premium rates, with companies having a dividend yield above 4% showing a significantly lower probability of having a premium rate above 50% [14] - The quality of listed companies, including profitability stability and dividend stability, is crucial for the future narrowing of the AH premium rate [17] Group 4 - The potential for further narrowing of the AH premium rate is influenced by the liquidity recovery in the Hong Kong market, the quality of listed companies, and the attractiveness of new IPOs from A-shares to H-shares [17][18] - The trend of more high-quality Chinese assets being available in the Hong Kong market is expected to attract additional trading volume and investment [17] - The ongoing changes in market sentiment and volatility may lead to variations in the AH premium rate being more pronounced at the sector and individual stock levels [18]