分析师：若伊朗能源供应告急 欧佩克+出手增产恐将引火烧身

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential geopolitical risks and market implications if Iran's energy supply is disrupted, particularly in relation to OPEC+ actions and the political ramifications for Saudi Arabia and the UAE [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Context - Richard Bronze from Energy Aspects highlights that the situation is escalating into a cycle of conflict, especially with Israel's actions against Iran's energy infrastructure [1] - The potential for further Israeli strikes raises questions about the stability of Iran's energy supply and the broader implications for the market [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Response - Harima Croft from RBC Capital Markets suggests that if there is a supply disruption, former President Trump may push for OPEC+ to utilize its significant idle capacity [1] - Current Iranian production is approximately 3.4 million barrels per day, and it remains uncertain whether OPEC can compensate for Iran's long-term production shortfall [1] Group 3: Political Risks for OPEC+ - Analysts indicate that while OPEC could replace Iranian crude with its idle capacity, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could face substantial political risks if they profit from this situation [1] - The potential backlash against Saudi and UAE energy facilities could be significant if they are seen as beneficiaries of a crisis [1]