伊以冲突升级危及石油供应 交易员押注油价飙涨

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude rising over 5.5% and WTI approaching $75 per barrel, raising concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices experienced their largest increase in three years last Friday, rising over 13% before slightly retracting [3]. - Brent crude is currently priced above $76 per barrel, while WTI is nearing $75 per barrel [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Analysts are preparing for potential further disruptions in oil supply due to the ongoing conflict, particularly as Israel targets Iran's energy infrastructure [3]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil, could lead to prices soaring to $130 per barrel, exacerbating global inflation [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The market is showing increasing concern over supply risks, with significant buying of call options indicating expectations for oil prices to rise above $80 [6]. - The price spread between two nearby December contracts has increased by $1.29 per barrel, reflecting heightened supply-demand concerns [6]. Group 4: Current Supply Situation - Despite the ongoing conflict, major oil facilities have not yet been damaged, providing some reassurance to the market [9]. - The International Energy Agency has indicated that global oil supply remains adequate, even with recent increases in OPEC+ production [9].