军工行业景气回暖

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in global military spending, projected to grow by 9.4% in 2024, marking the largest increase since the Cold War, driven by geopolitical tensions and modernization needs in countries like Israel and NATO members [1] - The military industry is experiencing a downturn in Q4 2024, with negative net profits, but signs of recovery are emerging in Q1 2025, as gross and net profit margins begin to improve, alongside a 9.35% year-on-year increase in total advance payments, indicating strong downstream order demand [1] - China's defense spending is expected to grow by 7.2% in 2025, maintaining a steady growth rate for three consecutive years, with a focus on accelerating defense modernization in line with strategic goals for 2027 and 2035, suggesting ongoing structural investment opportunities in the military sector [1] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with Iran considering blocking the strategically significant Strait of Hormuz, creating a dual-driven logic for the military industry through geopolitical risks, breakthroughs in military trade demand, and accelerated domestic substitution [2] - The military ETF (512660) is recommended as a tool for capturing industry allocation opportunities, covering the entire military-industrial chain with good elasticity and defensive attributes [2]